Class 1A state wrestling preview and predictions
BY BRANT PARSONS —Welcome to our 2024 state tournament preview and predictions.
This is yearly tradition that is meant to be both a viewing guide and fun way to look ahead to the best three days of the season.
For this set of predictions, the process didn’t change.
I take each bracket and make notes on it - including Kabra Wrestling rankings - and then play out each match in each bracket to determine the state placers and add a couple wrestlers to watch.
Since these are based on my rankings, and I am fully confident in my rankings, you’ll notice my picks never stray too far from them.
The final standings don’t always match my rankings because some brackets just don’t play out that way - and there are a couple notable times where I take a flyer and disagree with the rankings. I’m a fun guy like that.
What you’ll read in this preview is a snapshot in time on what I felt would happen in this tournament when I wrote the preview. If I was to go through and write it again, I’m sure there are some that would be different. There does tend to be a good deal of scratching out on my brackets when I do this.
As always, there is no bias that goes into these picks and they are meant for entertainment purposes only. I don’t cheer for my bracket to be right, in fact, the most memorable moments related to these previews are the kids that proved me wrong and then told me that they did.
In fact, when I’m covering the state tournament, I often don’t even remember the picks that I made. I’m too excited just watching the great action.
Best of luck to each of the state qualifiers that will compete this weekend. Just reaching the state tournament is such a tremendous accomplishment and no matter what you do this weekend at Silver Spurs Arena, you are a success that has accomplished great things through this powerful sport.
And if you prove me wrong, please let me know, I have a sticker for that.
The Picks
Team Race
Final standings
1. Somerset Academy
2. Mater Lakes Academy
3. First Baptist-Naples
4. Zephyrhills Christian
5. Jensen Beach
Predicted total state champions
3 - Somerset Academy
2 - First Baptist-Naples, Fernandina Beach
1 - Jensen Beach, Cardinal Gibbons, North Bay Haven Charter, CCC, Crystal River, Bozeman, Miami Christian
Predicted state placers
11 - Somerset Academy
9 - Mater Lakes Academy
8 - Zephyrhills Christian
6 - First Baptist-Naples, Jensen Beach
5 - Cardinal Gibbons, Suwannee, Palm Bay
4 - Fernandina Beach, Cocoa Beach
3 - North Bay Haven, Florida High, Mount Dora
2 - CCC, Yulee, Coral Springs Charter, SLAM Academy, St. John Country Day, McKeel Academy, Wakulla
1 - Crystal River, Bozeman, Miami Christian, Lemon Bay, Baker County, Bishop Verot, Hudson, Hernando, Bayshore, South Walton, Avon Park, Bay, Pine Crest, Booker, Episcopal of Jacksonville, Aubrey Rogers, Boca Ciega, Weeki Wachee, Lake Region, Liberty County, LaBelle, Nature Coast Technical, Key West, Cocoa, Rutherford, Space Coast
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Jovanni Tovar (Miami Christian)
2. #4 Eli Jolicoeur (Suwannee)
3. #2 Everett Stephens (First Baptist-Naples)
4. #5 RJ Phelan (Zephyrhills Christian)
5. #3 Broc Dahlin (Bayshore)
6. #6 Kevin McLean (St. John Country Day)
7. #7 Anthony Acquafredda (Cocoa Beach)
8. #8 Dylan Malott (Rutherford)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Cano Austin (Somerset); #11 Nicholas Guy (Weeki Wachee)
First round matches you can't miss: #5 RJ Phelan (Zephyrhills Christian) vs. #9 Cano Austin (Somerset); #14 Joseph Handley (Lake Region) vs. #8 Dylan Malott (Rutherford)
Kabra says: I feel there are at least 5-6 wrestlers here where you could say they have a shot to win a state title and you could make your case well. In a short time at the varsity level (but with extensive youth success), Tovar has started to distance himself here and gets our nod as the favorite here. Stephens had a big region final win over our top-ranked wrestler for most of the season and the freshman is a challenger here. We will know before Saturday on those two with a potential semifinal meeting looming. We’ve gone against our rankings in the top, picking Jolicoeur to win in the monster quarterfinal match with Dahlin. The Bayshore freshman had a 1-0 win this season at the Braves Invitational, so expect it to be close.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Jake Austin (Somerset)
2. #2 Kellen Mesina (Mater Lakes Academy)
3. #3 Preston Neufeld (North Bay Haven)
4. #5 Topher Pearson (Suwannee)
5. #4 Timothy Boda (First Baptist-Naples)
6. #6 Jason Ramirez (SLAM Academy)
7. #7 Howard Hill (St. John Country Day)
8. #8 Cole Webb (Cocoa)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Lukah Zherka (Aubrey Rogers); #10 Ethan Reilly (The First Academy)
First round matches you can't miss: #10 Ethan Reilly (The First Academy) vs. #9 Lukah Zherka (Aubrey Rogers); #6 Jason Ramirez (SLAM Academy) vs. #5 Topher Pearson (Suwannee)
Kabra says: Austin and Mesina have had two great weekends of competition. After the returning state champion went 3-0 during the season, Mesina scored the upset in the district final. Austin got that one back in the region final. It won’t be an easy trip to this final for Mesina, who opens with the 7th-ranked wrestler and then could face Boda in the quarterfinals.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Derrick Williams (Bozeman)
2. #2 Gian Ortiz (Jensen Beach)
3. #3 Matteo Gonzalez (Somerset)
4. #4 Samir Redden (Booker)
5. #5 Uy'Kwon Zion Wimberly (Zephyrhills Christian)
6. #8 Chris Greene (Mater Lakes Academy)
7. #6 James Oliver (North Bay Haven)
8. #9 Adrian Day (Cocoa Beach)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #7 Justin Contreras (Suwannee); #10 Logan Kelly (Lemon Bay)
First round matches you can't miss: #5 Uy'Kwon Zion Wimberly (Zephyrhills Christian) vs. #8 Chris Greene (Mater Lakes Academy); #14 Leonardo Sanchez (Bay) vs. #9 Adrian Day (Cocoa Beach)
The Wimberly-Greene opener could be a bracket-changing result because of how everything lays out here.
Kabra says: Williams reached the final last season and this weight class seemed to open even more for him with some key scratches at the start of the postseason. He’s not seen his main contenders this season, with Ortiz, Gonzalez, and Redden all building up strong resumes of wins and close losses. The 7th-grade Gonzalez could be there in the semifinals, but don’t let the grade fool year, he wrestles with the maturity of an upper classman. Ortiz is our pick in the bottom half but watch for Redden to throw a scare into him. The region champion from Booker is showing he’s capable of big things.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Sebastian Degennaro (Jensen Beach)
2. #2 Ethan Tran (Mater Lakes Academy)
3. #3 Jack Oliver (Lemon Bay)
4. #4 Dylan Fernandez (Somerset)
5. #6 Raymen Jackson (Palm Bay)
6. #7 Damien Zherka (Aubrey Rogers)
7. #5 Troy Thaxton (Wakulla)
8. #8 Keaton Ellis (Liberty County)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #10 Michael Bonanno (Avon Park); #11 Kyle Pearson (Hernando)
First round matches you can't miss: #9 Jareb Lauramore (Baker County) vs. #7 Damien Zherka (Aubrey Rogers); #8 Keaton Ellis (Liberty County) vs. #12 Jason Schiavello (CCC)
Each of these matches are winnable for both contestants and whoever wins gets a much better path to the podium.
Kabra says: When you have such a decided favorite like Degennaro in a bracket, it’s thrilling to see the other side house the 2-5 ranked wrestlers. The excitement up top will begin in the quarterfinals with the Oliver-Fernandez meeting highlighting it.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Jovani Solis (Somerset)
2. #2 Jonathan Moder (First Baptist-Naples)
3. #3 Anthony O'Dell (Mater Lakes Academy)
4. #5 David Drake (Bay)
5. #4 Kyle Gallo (Zephyrhills Christian)
6. #6 Sterling Hollinsworth (Florida High)
7. #8 Ben Norris (Jensen Beach)
8. #9 Logan Pugh (Yulee)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #10 Dominic Hernandez (Robinson); #11 Dominic Buckwalter (Nature Coast)
First round matches you can't miss: #12 Derrique Mytial (Fort Myers Gateway) vs. #11 Dominic Buckwalter (Nature Coast); #8 Ben Norris (Jensen Beach) vs. #6 Sterling Hollinsworth (Florida High)
Kabra says: Speaking of decided favorites, Solis has been dominant during his eighth-grade season at Somerset. The returning state champion should have his second on Saturday night. The match to watch might take place in the quarters with Moder facing O’Dell. Moder was a state finalist last year with O’Dell on the podium. On the top half of the bracket, a quarterfinal between Gallo and Drake could renew ties between two wrestlers who went to sudden victory.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Asher Bacon (First Baptist-Naples)
2. #3 Dominic Fouché (CCC)
3. #2 Mikel Pierce-Walker (Jensen Beach)
4. #4 Malikai Badillo (Mater Lakes Academy)
5. #5 Cael Kubatzke (Fernandina Beach)
6. #7 Darion Shannon (Somerset)
7. #6 William Day (Cocoa Beach)
8. #9 Brady Jackson (Wakulla)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #8 Jacob Reber (McKeel Academy); #10 Hunter Brown (Liberty County)
First round matches you can't miss: #8 Jacob Reber (McKeel Academy) vs. #9 Brady Jackson (Wakulla); #11 Eric Williams (Titusville) vs. #10 Hunter Brown (Liberty County)
Kabra says: Our top two-ranked wrestlers in this weight class sit in the bottom of this bracket. We had hoped to see them meet at the Knockout or Cradle, but each missed one of them, now we’ll get our answer between the two on Friday. The top of the bracket could see a 3-4 semifinal between two wrestlers who have met, with Fouche’ owning an 11-6 decision over Badillo. There’s no guarantee that will happen though, as the top half of this bracket features all five wrestlers ranked No. 3-7.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Michael Kersey (First Baptist-Naples)
2. #3 Frankie Florio (Cardinal Gibbons)
3. #2 Talon Maple (Zephyrhills Christian)
4. #5 Cole Misciagna (Fernandina Beach)
5. #4 Eric Hodge (Somerset)
6. #6 Ricky Bowermaster (Weeki Wachee)
7. #7 Devon Jackson (LaBelle)
8. #8 Preston Lindsay (Coral Springs Charter)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Zackery Wells (Avon Park); #11 Connor Murphy (Lemon Bay)
First round matches you can't miss: #4 Eric Hodge (Somerset) vs. #9 Zackery Wells (Avon Park); #12 Rodney Barnett (Union County) vs. #7 Devon Jackson (LaBelle)
Kabra says: Who do you think will win? I’m not sure I know on this one. We’re going with our rankings at the top and saying that last year’s state finalist will come out on top. We did go against our rankings with the captivating semifinal between Maple and Florio. It will be close, but we went with the 2022 state champion.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Gavin Nolan (CCC)
2. #2 Austin McKinney (Suwannee)
3. #4 Luis Bellon (Somerset)
4. #3 Aiden Hutchins (Zephyrhills Christian)
5. #5 Bryan Picallo (Cardinal Gibbons)
6. #6 Jean Benavidez (McKeel Academy)
7. #7 Kenny Alvarado (Mater Lakes Academy)
8. #10 Kaden Etheridge (Nature Coast)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #8 Bradyn Peters (Jensen Beach); #9 Mason Cosgrove (Crystal River)
First round matches you can't miss: #10 Kaden Etheridge (Nature Coast) vs. #13 Kealan Clifton (Oasis Charter); #7 Kenny Alvarado (Mater Lakes Academy) vs. #11 Turner Glenn (Episcopal of Jacksonville)
Kabra says: Two-time state champion Nolan is the favorite in a gripping weight class that features intrigue from top to bottom. McKinney could prove to be a worth finalist if he should reach the finals. Back at the state duals, a mental error cost Bellon a win over Hutchins. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself possibly in the quarterfinals here. Of course we have them meeting twice in our projections. Watch for long-time friends and competitors Bellon and Picallo to wrestle again in the consolation semifinal round.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Enzo Gamba (Fernandina Beach)
2. #2 Kalias Nazario (Mater Lakes Academy)
3. #3 Andres DiGrigoli (First Baptist-Naples)
4. #4 Shaw Garrett (Hernando)
5. #5 Marshall White (Suwannee)
6. #6 Brayden Hogg (Jensen Beach)
7. #7 Zachary Emery-Foster (Palm Bay)
8. #8 Nicholas Lopez (Cardinal Gibbons)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Angel Prieto (Bishop Moore); #10 Clay Nelson (Rocky Bayou Christian)
First round matches you can't miss: #11 Madiyan Abumunshar (Sarasota Military Acad.) vs. #8 Nicholas Lopez (Cardinal Gibbons); #7 Zachary Emery-Foster (Palm Bay) vs. #10 Clay Nelson (Rocky Bayou Christian)
Kabra says: When I was on SEWrestle’s YouTube preview show, I listed Gamba as the senior without a title that could get the monkey off his back this year. The undefeated Gamba has tested himself this season more than any before and is looking to improve on his 3rd and 7th-place finishes. Nazario and DiGrigoli might be his biggest threats to that goal. They’re looking to face each other in the semifinal in the bottom half of this bracket.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Kendrick Hodge (Somerset)
2. #3 Jason Simmons (Cardinal Gibbons)
3. #2 Benny Lewis (Baker County)
4. #4 Gibson Moore (South Walton)
5. #5 Alexander Roman (Avon Park)
6. #6 Benjamin Lewis (Suwannee)
7. #8 Deacon Warren (McKeel Academy)
8. #10 Colton Fickett (Mount Dora)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #7 Michael McNair (Yulee); #9 Christopher Bryant (Titusville)
First round matches you can't miss: #3 Jason Simmons (Cardinal Gibbons) vs. #6 Benjamin Lewis (Suwannee); #10 Colton Fickett (Mount Dora) vs. #12 Curtis Tyler (Zephyrhills Christian)
Kabra says: Two-time state champion Hodge is one of the biggest favorites in Class 1A, if not the state. The race chasing him on the podium is compelling with the second-ranked wrestler in the state on the same side of the bracket as Hodge. Nos. 3-6 are in the bottom half including potentially the best first-round match between Simmons and Lewis, if the Suwannee senior is healthy. He had to MFF in the region third-place match.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Nolan McKelvy (Fernandina Beach)
2. #2 Bennett Sweitzer (Bishop Verot)
3. #3 Xander Hawkes (Florida High)
4. #4 Myles Sadeek (Mater Lakes Academy)
5. #5 John Kelly (Boca Ciega)
6. #6 Noah Perez (Somerset)
7. #7 Javier Lopez (Zephyrhills Christian)
8. #8 Anthony Dawson (Mount Dora)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Christopher Aud (Yulee); #10 Dominic Pantuso (Cardinal Gibbons)
First round matches you can't miss: #11 Javarious Johnson (Lake Region) vs. #7 Javier Lopez (Zephyrhills Christian); #6 Noah Perez (Somerset) vs. #9 Christopher Aud (Yulee)
Kabra says: As easy as some weight classes are to pick, this one proved to be one of the most difficult. Nobody in the weight class has solidified themselves as a bona fide favorite - which is great for the fans, harder for the prognosticators. I’ve picked the final a few different ways already and finally decided to trust our rankings and pick McKelvy to win. The Fernandina Beach has finished the year strong with region and district titles following a win at Clay Rotary. But he also has a loss to Lopez, and that could be his quarterfinal opponent. Sweitzer and Hawkes in the semifinals is one of the matches you’ll find us on the side of the mat watching.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 David Mercado (North Bay Haven)
2. #3 Octavion Osby (Palm Bay)
3. #2 Jeremiah Chavis (Zephyrhills Christian)
4. #4 Peter Mocco (Coral Springs Charter)
5. #5 Christian McGarity (Episcopal of Jacksonville)
6. #6 Toby Rooney (Jensen Beach)
7. #7 Rafael Lopez (Somerset)
8. #8 Mason Alsobrook (Space Coast)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Tyron Huffman (Bayshore); #10 Derek Washington Jr. (Fort Myers Evangelical)
First round matches you can't miss: #6 Toby Rooney (Jensen Beach) vs. #8 Mason Alsobrook (Space Coast); #11 Clay Starling (Suwannee) vs. #9 Tyron Huffman (Bayshore)
Kabra says: Wow. This one is exciting. Defending state champion Mercado sits on the top half of the bracket with a 48-0 record while senior Osby and eighth-grader Mocco sit on the other half with undefeated records, 28 total matches between the two of them. Osby is a returning state placer and after a late start to his season, he’s getting into form at the right time. Don’t forget another 8th-grader, as Chavis sits in the top with Mercado and he’s our second-ranked guy entering the weekend.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Michael Mocco (Cardinal Gibbons)
2. #2 Damian Soto (Mater Lakes Academy)
3. #3 Christopher Brunson (Palm Bay)
4. #4 Nathan Chen (Pine Crest)
5. #5 Adrian Tejada (Somerset)
6. #6 Omarion James (Lake Region)
7. #7 Collin Bishop (Florida High)
8. #10 Russell Fickett (Mount Dora)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #8 Saul Martinez (Dunedin); #9 Marcos Silos-Sanchez (Bayshore)
First round matches you can't miss: #5 Adrian Tejada (Somerset) vs. #8 Saul Martinez (Dunedin); #10 Russell Fickett (Mount Dora) vs. #13 Kohl Pippin (Wakulla)
Kabra says: The national champion resides here and that leaves the rest of the field to battle for the podium here. Lucky for them, Nos. 2-4 won’t see Mocco until the final if they go 3-0. A quarterfinal between Brunson and Chen could be a riveting bout on Friday morning.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Tim Gray (Crystal River)
2. #2 Braylen Ricks (Yulee)
3. #3 Gavyn Uribes (Hudson)
4. #4 Leonard Christian (Palm Bay)
5. #6 Elijah Austin (Zephyrhills Christian)
6. #7 Darren Georges (SLAM Academy)
7. #5 Madden Fredenburg (Cocoa Beach)
8. #8 Ralph Riche (Key West)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #9 Miguel Diaz (Lemon Bay); #10 Dartavius Saintelus (King's Academy)
First round matches you can't miss: #8 Ralph Riche (Key West) vs. #5 Madden Fredenburg (Cocoa Beach); #11 Keith Forbes (Wolfson) vs. #9 Miguel Diaz (Lemon Bay)
Kabra says: Gray wrote us at Kabra Wrestling at the end of last season and said to watch out for him this year. He’s proved to be right as he’s been one of the best heavys in the state this year. He also owns a 4-2 win over Ricks, the wrestlers we have ranked No. 2 heading into Kissimmee. Ricks and Uribes are in the top half and if the Hudson senior can get through a tough quarterfinal with Christian, they’ll meet in the semis. Gray has a 2-0 record over Uribes this season.
Brant Parsons is the founder and executive editor of Kabra Wrestling. He has been covering high school wrestling in Florida since 2004.
He can be reached at brant@kabrawrestling.com.