Region 1A-1: Preview and Predictions
FRIDAY-SATURDAY FEBRUARY 23-24, 2024 - At Wewahitchka High School
Welcome to one of my favorite traditions - the region previews.
This is the sixth season I've written these but for those that are reading one for the first time, here's a quick summary of what the region preview is.
I start first by printing out each bracket - yes, this is one of the things I'm old school on.
I notate where wrestlers are ranked in the Kabra Wrestling Rankings and then start to break it down even more.
I look for head-to-head matchups, common opponents, and how each wrestler has been trending in the stretch run.
I then question my rankings - and myself - and play out the entire bracket.
What follows is my best guess for how 1A-1 will play out.
You can print the 1A-1 region bracket here. (PDF)
I've carefully predicted the four state qualifiers in the order that I think the will finish. I've also listed wrestlers that could prove me wrong and make it to Kissimmee.
I will be wrong with these picks, and I'm okay with that. In fact, I love when kids prove me wrong (or prove me right).
These previews and predictions are meant to bring excitement to one of the exhilarating and heartbreaking weekends in sports.
I assure you that I have no bias in my picks and truly wish the best for every wrestler competing this weekend.
And as always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Now onto the preview:
Teams to watch
7. Fernandina Beach, 8. Suwannee, 9. North Bay Haven Charter, 12. Baker County, 13. Florida High, 15. Yulee
Kabra's Picks
1. #2 Eli Jolicoeur (Suwannee)
2. #4 Kevin McLean (St. John Country Day)
3. #8 Dylan Malott (Rutherford)
4. #14 Brayden Martin (Baker County)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #16 Thiago Finuff (Liberty County); #17 Atreyu Contes (Keystone Heights)
Opening round match to watch: Contes vs. #20 Jacob Justice (Freeport)
Kabra says: There are eight ranked wrestlers in this weight class. We’re going with returning state qualifier Jolicoeur to get the win here, but it’s not a sure thing. The young McLean has had a solid season and owns a major decision win over Malott, his potential semifinal opponent.
Kabra's Picks
1. #3 Preston Neufeld (North Bay Haven)
2. #5 Topher Pearson (Suwannee)
3. #9 Howard Hill (St. John Country Day)
4. #17 Matthew Thaxton (Wakulla)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: Louis Eckles (Paxon); Tyler Johnson (Wewa)
Opening round match to watch: Thomas Pluhar (Rocky Bayou) vs. Jackson Mosley (West Nassau)
Kabra says: Neufeld and Pearson treated us to a 6-5 thriller earlier in the season, could we have a rematch here? It seems likely, but Hill won’t be an easy out for Pearson should he reach the semifinals. He’s also wrestled Neufeld tight this year, losing 4-2.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Derrick Williams (Bozeman)
2. #5 James Oliver (North Bay Haven)
3. #6 Justin Contreras (Suwannee)
4. #15 Leonardo Sanchez (Bay)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #18 Dylan Lunsford (Bishop Kenny); #19 Taylor Martinez (Wolfson)
Opening round match to watch: Lincoln Brehmer (Yulee) vs. Jared Goetzman (Keystone Heights)
Kabra says: Returning state finalist Williams is back for another go at the title as a senior. It won’t be an easy ride with Contreras waiting in the semifinal and Oliver in the final, but he should prevail. Williams does have a 13-7 win over Oliver this season.
Kabra's Picks
1. #4 Jareb Lauramore (Baker County)
2. #7 Mikah Ikeda (Episcopal)
3. #8 Troy Thaxton (Wakulla)
4. #10 Keaton Ellis (Liberty County)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #18 Ethan Warchol (Bishop Kenny); #20 Nathan Mercado (North Bay Haven)
Opening round match to watch: Ellis vs. #19 Tristan Martinez (Wolfson)
Kabra says: Lauramore’s strong season makes him an easy pick for favorite here. The top of the bracket does have five ranked wrestlers in it, but he should manage it well. In the bottom half, all signs point to a semifinal meeting between Ikeda and Thaxton. The Episcopal freshman has a 4-2 win this season.
Kabra's Picks
1. #7 Sterling Hollingsworth (Florida High)
2. #8 Jay Brown (Liberty County)
3. #6 David Drake (Bay)
4. #10 Jake Parker (Wewa)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #11 Bricyn Kennedy (Wakulla); #16 Logan Pugh (Yulee)
Opening round match to watch: Ishmael Foster (Palatka) vs. Kennedy
Kabra says: Okay, here’s some math to go over: Drake has a win over Hollingsworth. Hollingsworth has two wins over Brown. Brown has beaten Drake twice. Have all that? There will be a quiz later. What that all means is that anybody in this bracket can likely beat anyone on any given day. We’re going with Brown beating Drake in the semis and then Hollingsworth getting his region title over Brown. But we have been wrong before. Oh and there’s seven total ranked wrestlers here. This bracket is nuts.
Kabra's Picks
1. #5 Cael Kubatzke (Fernandina Beach)
2. #10 Brady Jackson (Wakulla)
3. #12 Hunter Brown (Liberty County)
4. #13 Jack Mulnix (North Bay Haven)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #15 Jonathan Walker (Baker County); #18 Dean Holt (Stanton)
Opening round match to watch: Holt vs. Aiden Garvey (Providence)
Kabra says: Returning state placer Kubatzke has the look of a favorite and is our pick to prevail over a bracket that houses six ranked wrestlers. The Mulnix-Holt and Brown-Walker quarters should have some deeper meaning in the bracket should they all advance.
Kabra's Picks
1. #5 Cole Misciagna (Fernandina Beach)
2. #13 Zander Stillgess (North Bay Haven)
3. #14 Aaron Robinson (Wakulla)
4. #15 Rodney Barnett (Union County)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #17 Elias Spurlin (Stanton); Chase Justice (Freeport)
Opening round match to watch: Camden Garcia (Providence) vs. Owen Parry (Rocky Bayou)
Kabra says: Not only is Misciagna a solid favorite here, he has wins over Robinson, Barnett, and Spurlin to back it up. A key match here is likely in the quarterfinals where ranked wrestlers Barnett and Spurlin could meet with the reward being a spot in the semifinals - and perhaps a better path to Kissimmee.
Kabra's Picks
1. #2 Austin McKinney (Suwannee)
2. #14 Turner Glenn (Episcopal)
3. #15 Nate Jacobs (Wakulla)
4. #19 Christopher Hampton (Bishop Kenny)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #18 Amari Akel (Bishop Snyder); William Lundgren (North Bay Haven)
Opening round match to watch: Christen Patterson (Bay) vs. Thomas Holt (Bolles)
Kabra says: Suwannee senior McKinney is the easy pick to win this weight class. The podium is not as simple to prognosticate. With four wrestlers and a deep field battling for three podium spots, there likely won’t be many dull moments here. We’ve gone with Glenn to reach the finals here as he owns a 4-2 win over Jacobs.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Enzo Gamba (Fernandina Beach)
2. #5 Bear Siegal (North Bay Haven)
3. #7 Marshall White (Suwannee)
4. #17 John Slade (Bishop Kenny)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #12 Clay Nelson (Rocky Bayou); #18 Ajani Zahira (FSDB)
Opening round match to watch: Josh Mercer (Liberty County) vs. Daniel Pierce (Bozeman)
Kabra says: Gamba has had an incredible season and is the heavy favorite here but the intrigue is at the top where Siegal returned from a scary injury to a new weight class and district title. He and White should make for an intriguing semifinal if they both make it there. Beware of the quarterfinals here and what they might do to the blood round possibilities.
Kabra's Picks
1. #2 Benny Lewis (Baker County)
2. #7 Michael McNair (Yulee)
3. #4 Gibson Moore (South Walton)
4. #8 Benjamin Lewis (Suwannee)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #12 Nicholas Roeder (Florida High); Jarrett Spencer (Wewa)
Opening round match to watch: Jameson Lang (Union County) vs. Brody Bousa (North Bay Haven)
Kabra says: We could see two big time semifinals there with 2-4 and 7-8 a possibility. Baker County’s Lewis has an 11-4 win over Moore in the top half and the bottom half haven’t met this season.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 Nolan McKelvy (Fernandina Beach)
2. #2 Xander Hawkes (Florida High)
3. #9 Christopher Aud (Yulee)
4. #16 Shaun Sandidge (Bay)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #14 Calvin Ross (Wewa); #19 Tommy Rollins (Baker County)
Opening round match to watch: Logan Cumbo (Palatka) vs. Torynn Johns (Suwannee)
Kabra says: There are pitfalls all over this bracket, but we could end up seeing a 1 vs. 2 in the final which would be a rematch of an earlier win by fall for McKelvy. There aren’t many easy ones in this bracket, so don’t be surprised to see some, um, surprises.
Kabra's Picks
1. #1 David Mercado (North Bay Haven)
2. #4 Christian McGarity (Episcopal)
3. #6 Alexander Cortese (Union County)
4. #17 Clay Starling (Suwannee)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #13 Brooks Baker (Bolles); Jordan Haigler (Florida High)
Opening round match to watch: Blake Barodte (Wakulla) vs. James Hardy (Wewa)
Kabra says: Mercado is the defending state champion and is undefeated on the season. The match to watch here is the semifinal lined up between McGarity and Cortese.
Kabra's Picks
1. #7 Collin Bishop (Florida High)
2. #12 Sam Ballard (Suwannee)
3. #13 Kohl Pippin (Wakulla)
4. #14 Maddox Davidson (Episcopal)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: #17 Phoenix Barbour-Yerka (Yulee); #19 Asher Burris (Bozeman)
Opening round match to watch: Pippin vs. Barbour-Yerka
Kabra says: There are six ranked wrestlers in this bracket and five of them are ranked between 12-19. Bishop is our favorite and has wins over his closest rivals, including a 4-3 win over Davidson.
Kabra's Picks
1. #2 Braylen Ricks (Yulee)
2. #13 Keith Forbes (Wolfson)
3. #15 Holden Corbin (Suwannee)
4. Adleigh Caquimbo (Wakulla)
Wrestlers who could prove me wrong: Tripp Rogers (North Bay Haven); Dylan Lane (Union County)
Opening round match to watch: Ben Clark (Palatka) vs. Christian Ajose-Adeogun (Florida High)
Kabra says: Ricks has been tough all season and should take home the region crown here. There is a big quarterfinal with the other two ranked wrestlers lined up to face in the round of 8.